Netherlands and Germany can gain from losing
Updated: 2007-11-20 10:14
BERNE, Switzerland - Germany and the Netherlands head into the final round of Euro 2008 qualifying on Wednesday knowing that victory could actually hamper their chances when the tournament kicks off next June.
Both teams have already made sure of a place at next year's event but further success this week is likely to present one of them with a much tougher route to the quarter-finals.
Unlike at most previous tournaments, there is a considerable disadvantage for the team who end the qualifiers as the highest ranked side, a situation that can now affect only the Germans or the Dutch.
Based on their qualifying results for both Euro 2008 and the 2006 World Cup, the team with the highest coefficient (points won divided by matches played) will be placed in a four-team pot of "top seeds" alongside co-hosts Austria and Switzerland, and champions Greece.
The team in question will therefore miss out on playing the Greeks, Swiss and Austrians -- ranked 14th, 41st and 88th in FIFA's world rankings -- and instead be drawn into a group including one of the other top five finishers.
The Netherlands will finish as the highest ranked team if they win or draw their last match away to Belarus.
Germany would overtake them by beating Wales at home should the Netherlands lose in Minsk.
"It is an unusual situation because you have two tournament hosts this time who are guaranteed a top seeding and a surprise European Champion in the form of Greece, whose current ranking would not otherwise put them in the top pot," a UEFA spokesman told Reuters last week.
HOME ADVANTAGE
"But Greece have shown again in the latest qualifying campaign that they are a strong team, and home advantage should not be underestimated when it comes to the Swiss and the Austrians."
Perhaps not, but would German coach Joachim Loew or his Dutch counterpart Marco van Basten really choose to share their group with Italy rather than Austria, who have won just one match this year under beleaguered coach Josef Hickersberger?
As things stand, the Netherlands would find themselves in the same group as second pot teams Germany, world champions Italy, Croatia or the Czech Republic.
England, yet to make sure of qualification, would climb into the second pot if they beat Croatia on Wednesday.
Spain and World Cup finalists France have already qualified but need to win on Wednesday and hope other results go their way to avoid being dumped into pot four.
France, disadvantaged by the fact that they gain no coefficient points from their run to the World Cup final, could find themselves in the same group as Germany, Italy and England.
Somewhat predictably, both the Germans and the Dutch have insisted that they will still be going all out for victory on Wednesday.
"We just want to beat Wales. I don't worry about any of the other issues," Loew told reporters on Monday.
Van Basten also showed that he was aware of the situation, pointing out to Dutch reporters last week the one possible advantage of making it into the top pot, namely that the team in question would play all its games at one stadium, either in Salzburg or Berne.
Seedings (ahead of Wednesday's matches)
POT 1: Switzerland (Hosts), Austria (Hosts), Greece (Holders), Netherlands
POT 2: Croatia, Germany, Italy, Czech Republic
POT 3: England*, Portugal*, Sweden*, Romania
POT 4: Poland, France, Spain, Turkey*
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