日批在线视频_内射毛片内射国产夫妻_亚洲三级小视频_在线观看亚洲大片短视频_女性向h片资源在线观看_亚洲最大网

Global EditionASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
China
Home / China / Society

Experts: too early to tell if super El Nino will hit this year

By ZHAO YIMENG | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2026-03-16 18:36
Share
Share - WeChat

It is still too early to determine whether a super El Nino — a natural climate phenomenon marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean — will develop this year, though growing online speculation about record-breaking heat and extreme weather has drawn widespread attention, experts said.

Recent discussions on social media have suggested that this year and next could become the hottest on record, raising concerns that the Earth may be approaching a powerful El Nino event capable of triggering global climate disruptions.

Experts from the National Climate Center at the China Meteorological Administration said current monitoring shows that the lingering La Nina conditions are weakening, and the tropical Pacific could shift toward an El Nino state later this year.

"There is a relatively high likelihood that the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will enter an El Nino state in the second half of this year, but it is still not possible to accurately predict its exact onset time or overall intensity," said Liu Yunyun, director of the climate prediction division at the center.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation, often known as ENSO, is a naturally occurring climate pattern involving fluctuations in ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions across the tropical Pacific. It typically recurs every three to seven years and can influence weather patterns worldwide.

Scientists classify ENSO phases by measuring sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. When a three-month average anomaly exceeds 0.5?C for at least five consecutive months, the event is considered an El Nino, while a sustained anomaly below — 0.5?C indicates La Nina conditions.

Based on recent observations and model forecasts, the center said the current La Nina episode is gradually ending and will likely transition into a neutral phase in the coming months. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are expected to continue warming, raising the possibility that El Nino conditions could form as early as late spring, Liu said.

Historical data show that the probability of entering an El Nino phase in the same year after a La Nina ends is about one-third, she added.

Despite these projections, Liu said it remains difficult to determine precisely when an El Nino might form or how strong it would be. "It is premature to conclude that a 'super El Nino' will occur this year," she said.

Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster at the center's climate prediction division, said El Nino events often coincide with rising global average temperatures.

However, the scale of warming and the intensity of extreme weather depend on the strength and type of the El Nino event as well as regional climate responses, she said. "At this stage, it is too early to say that a super El Nino would necessarily lead to the hottest year on record," Chen said.

The heightened public interest reflects growing concern over climate-related risks as extreme weather events become more frequent worldwide, she added.

Experts also warned that climate discussions on social media, including claims about "the hottest year" or catastrophic weather, can sometimes involve exaggeration or information taken out of context.

Chen urged the public to interpret such predictions cautiously, noting that climate forecasting always involves uncertainties, particularly regarding the timing, intensity, and regional impacts of an El Nino event.

"Regardless of whether El Nino develops this year, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events has become a new reality under global climate change," Chen said, advising the public to stay alert to weather warnings from authoritative sources and prepare accordingly. Farmers should plan agricultural activities carefully, while city planners should strengthen the resilience of infrastructure such as power, water, and transportation networks, she added.

Top
BACK TO THE TOP
English
Copyright 1994 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
 
主站蜘蛛池模板: 日韩网站在线观看 | 久操av在线 | 国产爆操 | 四虎884aa成人精品 | 国产精品午夜影院 | 91狠狠综合久久久 | 国产精品18| 国产青青操 | www.黄色国产 | 黄色片视频免费 | 视色,视色影院,视色影库,视色网 | 日皮视频免费 | 亚洲视频a | 国产小视频免费观看 | 亚洲精品午夜国产va久久成人 | www黄色| 欧美国产精品一区 | 亚洲成人一区二区 | 国产免费专区 | 免费午夜影院 | 国产区在线 | 精品日韩中文字幕 | 午夜在线精品 | 日本少妇一区二区三区 | www.99re6| 在线观看中文字幕视频 | 香蕉久久a毛片 | 涩涩一区 | 久久国内 | 在线一区视频 | 日韩一区二区三区免费观看 | 日韩中文字幕在线观看视频 | 国产999在线观看 | 日韩av在线网址 | 91视频在线 | 黄色成年视频 | 国产日韩在线播放 | 欧美激情久久久久久久 | 亚洲国产精品视频一区 | 亚洲成人久 | 全部免费毛片在线播放高潮 |